Six medals. That was the final count from Paris 2024 — one silver and five bronze — falling short of the ten-plus haul that Indian sports administrators had targeted going in. Six athletes finished fourth, which in Olympic parlance translates to the single most emotionally exhausting word in sport: almost.
India's Mission LA28 was launched almost immediately after the Paris closing ceremony. Sports Minister Mansukh Mandaviya chaired the first Mission Olympic Cell meeting at SAI headquarters in New Delhi in January 2025, with former Olympians Gagan Narang and Pullela Gopichand at the table. The mandate was clear: learn from Paris, fix the systems, and come to Los Angeles ready to win.
Two years out from Los Angeles, where does India actually stand?
The Gold Standard: What Paris Taught Us
The Paris cycle cost the Indian government in excess of INR 470 crore. That is not a small sum. And the uncomfortable question it raises is whether the money is being spent on the right athletes, with the right support, at the right time.
Narang, who served as India's chef de mission in Paris, was characteristically direct in his post-Games assessment: the ecosystem is challenging, the nation is diverse, and the variance in athlete development pipelines is enormous. But he also noted something encouraging — the ambition has never been higher. Athletes want to win. They want to compete. The culture is shifting.
The TOPS programme — Target Olympic Podium Scheme — has been revised for the LA cycle. The previous list of nearly 180 athletes has been trimmed to a focused 94 (42 athletes and 52 para-athletes), with six-monthly reviews to ensure support tracks performance rather than history.
Confirmed Medal Contenders
Javelin Throw — Neeraj Chopra: The surest bet on the list. Now coached by Jan Železný and having broken the 90-metre barrier with a 90.23m throw at Doha in 2025, Neeraj is competing at the absolute frontier of his event. His consistency since Tokyo 2020 is unmatched in Indian athletic history. A third Olympic podium finish would cement a legacy already beyond argument.
Shooting — Manu Bhaker and the squad: India's shooting contingent is the broadest it has ever been. Manu's two bronzes at Paris established her as the face of the generation. Sarabjot Singh, Swapnil Kusale, Sift Kaur Samra, Mehuli Ghosh and Rudrankksh Patil are all in TOPS, all targeting specific events, all training with a focus that the programme's financial backing makes possible. Shooting has historically been India's most reliable Olympic sport, and the squad depth suggests that trend can continue.
Badminton — Satwik-Chirag Rankireddy: The men's doubles pair of Satwiksairaj Rankireddy and Chirag Shetty won bronze at the 2025 World Championships and remain India's most reliable medal prospect in the sport. PV Sindhu, Lakshya Sen and HS Prannoy are all in the TOPS core group, but the doubles pair currently look the clearest route to a podium.
Weightlifting — Mirabai Chanu: Paris silver medallist Mirabai remains the standout individual hope in weightlifting. Younger lifters are emerging, but Mirabai's experience and consistency in major events continues to set her apart.
New Sports, New Opportunities
LA 2028 has expanded the Olympic programme in ways that specifically benefit India.
Cricket — T20 format — makes its Olympic debut in Los Angeles. India won the T20 World Cup 2026 comprehensively on home soil, with captain Suryakumar Yadav publicly stating that the Olympic gold is the squad's next target. The Indian women's team, having won the ODI World Cup in November 2025, will be equally motivated. Cricket's Olympic return after 128 years is a moment the country will not want to miss.
Compound Archery Mixed Team is now an Olympic event, and India has been one of the world's dominant compound archery nations for years. At the Hangzhou Asian Games in 2023, India swept all compound archery golds — men's individual, women's individual, men's team, women's team and mixed team. Jyothi Surekha Vennam and Ojas Pravin Deotale represent a genuine gold medal possibility.
Squash joins the Olympic programme for the first time, with men's and women's singles. Anahat Singh and Ramit Tandon are India's leading prospects. Anahat, still very young, has been part of the JSW-backed IIS Squash Excellence Programme since 2023. Ramit sits around 31st in the men's world rankings — within striking distance of qualification, depending on the final allocation formula.
The Wildcards
Boxing continues to generate interest despite complex results at major championships. Jaismine Lamboria's gold at the 2025 Boxing World Championships was a standout moment. Wrestling's talent pool — particularly in freestyle — remains large, though discipline issues and selection controversies have repeatedly undermined campaigns. Athletics, beyond Neeraj, now has Avinash Sable in steeplechase and Jyothi Yarraji in hurdles as potential contributors.
India also won historic double gold at the Asian Lacrosse Games 2026 in Riyadh — men and women both — though lacrosse is not yet an Olympic sport.
Can India Hit Double Digits?
Realistically, the pathway to double-digit medals runs through: two or three shooting medals, one athletics medal (Neeraj), one or two badminton medals, one cricket medal (effectively guaranteed if the team qualifies and performs), one or two archery medals and a shooting contribution from the para-athletes (counted separately for the Paralympics).
The honest answer is that double digits is achievable with a combination of strong performance, good draws, and the new sports coming through as expected. It is not guaranteed. The gap between Indian athletes and the global best in most Olympic sports remains significant — the 2025 World Championship season, across 26 sports, produced limited Indian podium finishes outside the known strong disciplines.
But the infrastructure has improved. The ambition is real. The athletes are training harder and smarter than any generation before them. And Los Angeles — a city that loves spectacle — is exactly the kind of stage that India's best performers have historically risen to.
Two years. The countdown has started. India is not just participating this time. It is planning.