IMD Issues Monsoon Warning: Rainfall Likely to Fall Below Normal in 2026 as El Niño Looms — Heatwave Conditions Also Active Across Multiple States

On April 13, 2026 — the day Noida was burning over wages and Delhi was debating its EV future — India's top weather authority held a press conference with a different but equally consequential warning. The India Meteorological Department's Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, alongside Union Ministry of Earth Sciences Secretary M. Ravichandran, announced that the 2026 Southwest Monsoon season (June to September) is most likely to be below normal. For a country where roughly 60 percent of farmers still depend entirely on monsoon rainfall for their Kharif crops, this matters enormously.

The Numbers: What "Below Normal" Means in Practice

India defines "below normal" monsoon as one where seasonal rainfall falls between 90 and 95 percent of the Long Period Average (LPA). IMD's first long-range forecast for 2026 puts the number at 92 percent of LPA, with a model error margin of plus or minus 5 percent. The LPA of seasonal monsoon rainfall, calculated over 1971–2020, is 87 cm. At 92 percent, India is looking at approximately 80 cm of total rainfall across the four-month monsoon season — a shortfall of around 7 cm from the benchmark. That 7 cm deficit, spread unevenly across regions, will determine sowing patterns, reservoir levels, and food prices for the second half of 2026.

El Niño: The Main Concern

The central worry for IMD's forecasters is the likely development of El Niño — a periodic warming of equatorial Pacific Ocean surface temperatures — during the monsoon season itself. El Niño weakens the trade winds that carry moisture from the Indian Ocean to the subcontinent, typically suppressing rainfall across India. IMD's Monsoon Mission Climate Forecast System (MMCFS) predicts that while ENSO-neutral conditions persist through April–June, El Niño is likely to develop from July onward. This means the second half of the monsoon — August and September — is when the risk concentrates. These are exactly the months when standing Kharif crops like paddy, pulses, soyabean, and oilseeds are at their most water-intensive stage. A late-season deficit is therefore potentially more damaging than an early one.

IMD also flagged that northern hemisphere snow cover for January–March 2026 was slightly below normal — and in historical data, below-normal snow cover over Eurasia has generally been associated with better monsoon performance. This gives forecasters a degree of cautious optimism. Similarly, positive IOD conditions are expected to develop in August–September, which would partially offset El Niño's suppressive effect. But neither factor is strong enough to reverse the overall below-normal forecast at this stage.

Today's Weather Across India: Heatwave in Multiple States

While the monsoon is months away, today's weather is already harsh across several regions. Temperatures are touching 40°C in multiple cities across northern and central India in mid-April — earlier than usual.

Why a Below-Normal Monsoon Matters Beyond Farming

An agricultural shortfall is the most obvious concern — India's Kharif season covers over 140 million hectares and produces most of the country's rice, pulses, and coarse grains. But the cascading effects are wider. Reservoir levels in central and peninsular India, which are already lower than last year at this point, will determine whether urban water supply holds through October. Hydropower generation in deficit rainfall regions will be constrained, increasing dependence on thermal power at a time when energy costs are elevated due to global oil market stress. And a weak monsoon historically pushes up vegetable, pulse, and cereal prices — adding inflationary pressure to an economy already navigating rising global commodity costs.

IMD has scheduled an updated forecast for the last week of May 2026. That will be the more definitive read, as it will incorporate updated ocean surface temperature data from April and May. For now, farmers, state governments, and the central agricultural ministry are being advised to prepare contingency plans for a potentially below-normal season.

SOURCES

1. ANI / Aninews.in (April 13, 2026)
2. Down to Earth (April 14, 2026)
3. IMD Internal Bulletin
4. Sunday Guardian Live