After the BSE Sensex jumped nearly 3,000 points on April 8 — one of the biggest single-session gains in years — Thursday's session on April 9 saw the market retreat sharply as investors came back to reality. The day started cautiously and ended worse than expected. The BSE Sensex, which had settled at 77,562.90 the previous day, opened Thursday at 77,319.33 and kept slipping. By midday, it was down over 877 points, trading around 76,685. The intraday low touched 76,604.
The Nifty 50 told a similar story — it had crossed 24,000 on Wednesday's euphoria, but Thursday saw it drop back below that mark. It opened around 23,990 and fell to 23,862 at one point, down roughly 134 to 150 points from the previous close.
So what happened? Let's break this down clearly, because there are at least four different forces pushing the market around right now, and understanding each one matters.
The Iran Problem Isn't Going Away
The single biggest trigger for Wednesday's rally was news of a temporary ceasefire between the United States and Iran. Markets across Asia lit up. Brent crude fell sharply. India's India VIX — the fear index — crashed nearly 20% on April 8, signalling that traders had suddenly become a lot less scared about what comes next.
But by Thursday morning, US President Donald Trump reminded the world that this calm is fragile. He indicated that the situation between the US and Iran would remain tense until a "real pact" is reached. He also made clear that US military assets — ships, aircraft, personnel, weapons — remain deployed and on standby for action. That was enough to bring back the nervousness that Wednesday's rally had briefly suspended.
Crude oil is the reason this matters so much to India. Brent crude had fallen toward the low $90s per barrel after the ceasefire announcement, but it bounced back toward $110 as the geopolitical tension resurfaced. India imports over 85% of its oil. Every dollar increase in crude adds to the import bill, widens the current account deficit, and puts pressure on the rupee. When oil goes up, India's macroeconomic math gets harder.
FII Selling Has Not Stopped
Here is something worth noting about Wednesday's big rally: even on a day when the Sensex gained nearly 4%, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) were net sellers. Provisional data showed FPIs sold a net ₹2,811.97 crore in domestic equities on April 8 — a strong rally day. That tells you something important: the rally was driven largely by domestic institutional investors (DIIs) and retail buying, not by foreign money coming back in.
FPIs have been pulling money out of Indian markets consistently. The broader data shows foreign investors pulled roughly $52 billion from Asian markets in recent months, and India has not been immune. On April 7, FII activity showed net selling of ₹8,692.11 crore, while DIIs bought ₹7,979.50 crore to cushion the blow.
This gap — DIIs holding the fort while FIIs keep exiting — means the market's upside is limited. There is a floor being put in by domestic money, but there's also a ceiling being put in by foreign sellers. Until FIIs return in a meaningful way, expect range-bound, choppy sessions.
What the RBI Does Next Matters
The Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee was meeting this week, with a decision expected imminently. Most analysts expect the RBI to hold rates steady at 5.25%. But what the governor says in the statement matters more than the number itself.
If the RBI signals concern about inflation rising because of oil prices, that would be hawkish and could hurt bond markets and rate-sensitive sectors like banking and real estate. If it signals willingness to cut further despite global uncertainty, that could lift sentiment. Investors were watching the commentary very carefully.
Q4 Earnings Season: The Real Test Begins
IT companies are the first major sector to report quarterly numbers, and the results due from TCS, Infosys, HCL Tech, Wipro, and Tech Mahindra in coming days will set the tone for the broader market.
Kotak Institutional Equities projected that March quarter net profit for BSE-30 constituents will increase by just 3.1% year-on-year, while Nifty 50 firms are expected to deliver a thin 2.6% earnings growth. Those are not exciting numbers. And if the actual results miss even these modest expectations — or if companies give cautious guidance on FY27 — the market will feel it.
For IT companies specifically, the question is how the demand environment looks in the US and Europe. With Trump's tariff agenda continuing to reshape global trade, Indian IT exporters are caught in the middle — their clients are anxious, spending is being reviewed, and margins are under pressure.
On the other hand, Morgan Stanley recently retained its Sensex target of ₹95,000 for December 2026. The brokerage called India's trailing 12-month market returns "almost the worst in history" but added that relative valuations are now at levels seen at previous troughs — suggesting a recovery over the next several months is more likely than not.
Axis Securities analysts put the bull case for Nifty at 29,480 by December 2026 end (at 21x earnings), with a bear case of 23,865 (at 17x). That gives you a sense of how wide the uncertainty band is.
What Moved on April 9?
Broadly, the market saw red across the board. Sectors that had led Wednesday's rally — Auto (which gained over 6% the previous day), Realty (up 6.75%), and Banking — all gave back some of those gains on Thursday.
Among individual counters, Reliance Industries continued to struggle, weighed down by the government's export tax on diesel which analysts say will hurt refining margins. HDFC Bank was also under pressure. On the gaining side, metals — Hindalco, Vedanta — held relatively better as commodity prices remained firm.
The broader market showed weakness too. On the BSE, losing stocks outnumbered gaining ones by a significant margin during most of the session.
The India VIX, which had crashed nearly 20% on Wednesday, bounced back on Thursday — still lower than last week's peak, but rising again. A VIX above 20 or 25 signals elevated fear, and it has been running high for most of 2026.
The Bigger Picture: What Has 2026 Done to Your Portfolio So Far?
The Nifty 50 hit its 52-week low on April 2, 2026. The index lost more than 5% in the full financial year ending March 30, 2026. The BSE Sensex lost over 7% in the same period — a rough stretch that has been attributed to the West Asia conflict, foreign investor outflows, global tightening, and domestic earnings pressure.
The selloff earlier in the year wiped out months of gains. In March alone, Nifty dropped over 11% at its worst point. VIX is currently at 28 — a level that signals real macro uncertainty and geopolitical risk, as Axis Securities noted.
For retail investors, this is genuinely tough terrain. Experts are now advising a "buy on dips" strategy with a staggered approach — meaning don't put everything in at once, but use these corrections to build positions in quality stocks with strong balance sheets and consistent earnings.