It was a ceasefire that lasted less than 24 hours before it started cracking at the seams. The world woke up Wednesday morning thinking the worst was over — oil prices dropped nearly 20%, stock markets from Seoul to Mumbai soared, and people in Tehran's Revolution Square were out on the streets waving flags. Then Israel went ahead and bombed Beirut. Again. Harder than before.
That is where we are right now. Forty days into one of the most consequential wars of this century, and the situation on the ground remains explosive — literally and diplomatically.
How it Started?
The 2026 Iran war did not come out of nowhere. On February 28, 2026, the United States and Israel launched joint airstrikes on Iran, targeting military infrastructure, government sites, and key officials. The opening salvo killed Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and triggered a torrent of hundreds of retaliatory missiles and drones from Iran across the Middle East, targeting US military bases in Bahrain, Jordan, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE.
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The operation, codenamed Operation Epic Fury by the United States and Operation Roaring Lion by Israel, began on February 28, 2026, and the Israeli Air Force said it struck 500 military targets in western and central Iran in the largest combat sortie in its history, using over 1,200 bombs in the first 24 hours alone.
Iran fired back with everything it had. Dubai International Airport was hit. Shipping in the Gulf came to a near standstill. The Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's most volatile oil chokepoints, was severely disrupted, leading to fuel shortages in parts of Asia and rippling effects across the global economy.
The Ceasefire That Came in a Rush
By early April, after more than five weeks of sustained strikes and counter-strikes, the situation had become economically unsustainable. Oil prices had shot through the roof. The United States and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire, just hours before President Donald Trump's deadline for Tehran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or see a "whole civilization" die.
The deal, brokered primarily by Pakistan, came together fast. Trump announced it on Tuesday night. Pakistani PM Shehbaz Sharif took a victory lap on X, saying the ceasefire covered "all fronts including Lebanon." Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi confirmed Tehran's agreement, saying safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz would be possible through coordination with Iranian armed forces.
Markets reacted immediately. Oil prices plunged, dropping below the $100 a barrel mark, and stocks soared after the ceasefire announcement. Stocks in Seoul jumped 6.9%, Tokyo 5.4%, Taipei added 4%, and Mumbai rose 3.8%.
But the euphoria did not last long.
Israel's Move: The Bomb That Broke the Truce's Spirit
Within hours of the ceasefire, Israel made its position clear in the loudest way possible. The Israeli Air Force said Wednesday it launched its "largest attack across Lebanon" since Operation Roaring Lion began. Prime Minister Netanyahu went on record saying the ceasefire with Iran does not apply to Hezbollah or Lebanon. Israel was going to finish what it started in Lebanon, ceasefire or no ceasefire.
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This put Washington in a spot nobody wanted to be in. Tehran was furious. Iran accused Israel of violating the conditional ceasefire and accused the US of violating multiple clauses of the deal framework. Iran's semi-official Tasnim news agency posted a statement saying Tehran had "forced criminal America to accept its 10-point plan," which included US commitments to guarantee non-aggression, accept uranium enrichment, lift all sanctions, and stop the war on all fronts — including Lebanon.
Iran's Foreign Minister Araghchi posted on X, saying the terms of the ceasefire were "clear and explicit: the US must choose — ceasefire or continued war via Israel. It cannot have both."
Trump's Statements: Moving Targets
Trump, characteristically, has been all over the place. On Tuesday, he announced the ceasefire with the language of a man who had just won a war. On Wednesday, when Iran re-closed the Strait in response to the Lebanon strikes, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt called it "completely unacceptable."
Trump posted on Truth Social that "All US ships, aircraft, and military personnel will remain in place in, and around, Iran, until such time as the REAL AGREEMENT reached is fully complied with. If for any reason it is not, the 'Shootin' Starts,' bigger, and better, and stronger than anyone has ever seen before."
Then, in a phone call with ABC News, Trump floated the idea of a joint US-Iran toll-collection operation at the Strait of Hormuz — something that baffled analysts on both sides. Thursday morning, Trump issued a warning on social media responding to reports that Iran is collecting tolls in the Strait, saying "they better not be and, if they are, they better stop now!"
Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, meanwhile, was out at the Pentagon trying to frame Operation Epic Fury as a military success. He said Iran's military was "obsessed" with trying to strike a US aircraft carrier, but "never got even close." "Iran shot hundreds and hundreds of missiles and one-way attack drones at our aircraft carrier. Every single one of those shots, easily shot down miles and miles away," Hegseth said.
Where Things Stand Today: April 10, 2026
The overall death toll from the conflict, as estimated by the US-based rights group HRANA, stands at almost 3,400 dead in Iran, including more than 1,600 civilians. Thirteen US service members have been killed in combat, and two more died of non-combat causes. Iran has not released official recent figures.
The Strait of Hormuz remains a live wire. Asian equities and oil prices rose Friday ahead of the anticipated talks between the US and Iran in Islamabad, with Brent crude at around $96.30 a barrel — still well above pre-war levels. UAE's ADNOC chief Sultan Al Jaber was blunt on Thursday, posting on LinkedIn that the Strait is not truly open — access is being "conditioned and controlled."
Congress back home in Washington is pushing back too. House Democrats tried to pass a War Powers Resolution Thursday to limit Trump's ability to further strike Iran.
What happens next depends almost entirely on what goes down in Islamabad on Saturday — and how long Israel keeps bombing Lebanon.
Sources:
- Reuters,
- AP
- AL Jazeera
