There are weeks in the stock market that feel like a bad dream — one day you're up four percent, the next you've given it all back, and the day after you're climbing again with slightly less conviction. This past week was exactly that. And unlike most volatile weeks, this one had a single, identifiable cause: a 39-kilometre strip of water in the Persian Gulf.
The Strait of Hormuz ceasefire announcement on April 8 triggered one of the most extraordinary single-day rallies in recent Indian market history. Then doubts set in. Markets sold off hard. And today, Friday April 10, they're recovering again — carefully, tentatively, with one eye on the news wires from Islamabad where US and Iranian negotiators are sitting across a table.
April 8 — The Day Markets Exploded
Wednesday, April 8 will be in the trading records for a while. The BSE Sensex closed at 77,562.90 — up 2,946 points or 3.95 percent. The NSE Nifty settled at 23,997.35, a gain of 873 points or 3.78 percent. Nifty touched an intraday high of 24,025 — the first time it had gone that high in months.
This was Nifty's highest single-day gain in 11 months. The BSE's total market capitalisation of listed companies jumped by approximately Rs 16 lakh crore in a single trading session. Of the 4,789 stocks traded that day, 4,178 — nearly 87 percent — closed in the green.
The trigger was President Trump's announcement of a two-week ceasefire with Iran, combined with Iran's agreement to allow safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz. The moment that news broke, global markets went into risk-on mode. South Korea's KOSPI surged over 5 percent. Japan's Nikkei jumped more than 4 percent. Australia's ASX 200 climbed nearly 3 percent.
In India, every sectoral index ended positive. Nifty Realty was the top gainer at 6.76 percent — falling bond yields and improved liquidity outlook boosted real estate stocks. Auto stocks gained 6.55 percent on hopes of lower input costs. PSU Banks rose 5.79 percent, Private Banks 5.62 percent. Even the midcap and smallcap indices showed strong gains.
Crude Oil — The Number That Drives Everything Else
Crude oil is the invisible hand behind Indian market moves right now. When Hormuz fears were at their worst, Brent crude had crossed $115 per barrel. On April 8, with the ceasefire news, Brent fell 13.89 percent in a single session to $94.09 per barrel. WTI dropped to $96.03. This was a collapse that sent shockwaves through commodity markets globally.
For India, falling oil is unambiguously good news. India imports around 85 percent of its crude requirements. Every $10 rise in oil prices costs India approximately $12-15 billion extra per year in import bills. It widens the current account deficit, pressures the rupee, raises inflation and puts the government under pressure on fuel pricing.
But the relief was short-lived. On April 9, reports of ceasefire violations and Israeli strikes on Lebanon pushed oil back toward $98-99 per barrel. As of this morning, April 10, crude is trading around $100 — volatile, sensitive to every headline, and not yet decisively in either direction.
The Rupee — From 93.50 to 92.58 and Back
The rupee had been under serious pressure since the Hormuz crisis began in earnest. At its weakest, it touched 93.50 against the dollar — a level that worried the RBI and pushed it to intervene through forex operations. FII outflows had been consistent and painful; foreign investors pulled Rs 8,692 crore from Indian equities on Tuesday alone.
On April 8, the rupee gained 47 paise in a single session, closing at 92.58 — its strongest move in months. The dollar index cooled to 98.8. US 10-year Treasury yields fell to 4.24 percent. All of this created positive feedback for emerging market currencies including the rupee.
Then April 9 happened. The rupee slipped 9 paise to 92.63 as oil rebounded and ceasefire doubts returned. Today it's trading in the 92.60-92.70 range — holding, but with no conviction either way.
April 9 — Reality Bites Back
Thursday brought a sharp correction. Sensex fell 931.25 points or 1.20 percent to close at 76,631.65. Nifty dropped 222.25 points or 0.93 percent to 23,775.10. The weekly Sensex expiry amplified intraday volatility.
Financials took the hardest hit. HDFC Bank fell 1.2 percent, ICICI Bank dropped 1 percent, Infosys slid 2 percent. Kotak Mahindra Bank and SBI also saw meaningful selling. L&T, InterGlobe Aviation, Eternal, Shriram Finance and Jio Financial were among the biggest Nifty losers. FIIs remained net sellers throughout the session.
The only bright spots were in defence and metals. BEL gained 1.6 percent. Hindalco, Bajaj Auto, Dr Reddy's Labs and ONGC were among the few risers. Defence stocks have been consistently outperforming during this geopolitical stress period — the logic being that military spending globally is rising.
Today — April 10: Sensex Up 700+, Banking and Aviation Lead
GIFT Nifty indicated a positive opening this morning at around 23,944 — about 60-68 points up, or roughly 0.25-0.28 percent. The market opened stronger than expected, with Sensex gaining over 624 points at the open. Nifty climbed past 183 points to hover above 23,958.
Axis Bank is the frontrunner today, trading at Rs 1,348.95, up 2.30 percent. Asian Paints and ICICI Bank are also performing well. Most large-cap banking names are trading near their day's highs. Aviation stocks — IndiGo, SpiceJet, GMR Airports — are up 7-11 percent on lower oil price hopes. Defence names continue to hold strong.
India VIX — the fear gauge — is elevated near 20.4, which means sharp swings are still on the table. The broader sentiment is cautiously positive but nobody is calling the bottom yet.
TCS Q4 Results — IT Season Starts
Tata Consultancy Services announced Q4 FY26 results after market hours on Thursday. Net profit rose 12.2 percent year-on-year to Rs 13,718 crore. Revenue grew 9.6 percent to Rs 70,698 crore. EBIT margin expanded by 108 basis points to 25.27 percent — a healthy number.
The most significant piece of the results was the deal pipeline. TCS signed one of its highest-ever quarterly Total Contract Values at $12 billion in Q4 FY26, including three mega deals. It also renewed a multi-year strategic partnership with UK retailer Marks & Spencer for AI-led transformation.
The company declared a final dividend of Rs 31 per share, taking the total FY26 dividend to Rs 110 per share — the highest in several years. Full year FY26 revenue came in at Rs 2,67,021 crore.
TCS shares opened slightly in the red this morning as investors booked profits after the results. The stock was at Rs 2,559 in early trade. Analysts have a range of targets: YES Securities at Rs 3,534 (Buy), Equirus at Rs 2,945 (Long), JM Financial at Rs 2,660 (Add).
RBI Keeps Repo at 5.25% — Cautious and Correct
The RBI's Monetary Policy Committee voted unanimously on April 8 to keep the benchmark repo rate unchanged at 5.25 percent, maintaining a neutral stance. The central bank explicitly cited the West Asia conflict — its impact on energy supplies, inflation trajectory, and growth outlook — as reasons for caution.
What the Analysts Are Watching
Ajay Menon at Motilal Oswal said it clearly: 'Movements in crude oil prices, the rupee, and FII flows will remain key determinants of near-term market direction.' Hitesh Tailor at Choice Equity Broking sees 76,800-77,000 as Sensex's strong support zone, with 78,000 as the next resistance.
Vinay Paharia at PGIM India offered the longer view: 'The past few months saw a macro stress test — combining oil shock, capital outflows, currency pressures, AI-related growth concerns and growth downgrades. Many of these are transitory. Largecaps and Smallcaps are now trading close to their longer-term valuation averages. Risk-reward is more balanced than before. Midcaps are still trading at moderately rich valuations.'
SOURCES
• Business Standard, April 8, 2026 — Rs 16 trillion Sensex rally analysis
• BusinessToday, April 8-10, 2026 — Sensex Nifty live updates and analyst comments
• GoodReturns.in, April 8, 2026 — Stock market rally after US-Iran ceasefire
• Open Magazine, April 9, 2026 — Sensex crashes 931 points, profit booking analysis
• News24Online, April 10, 2026 — Petrol Diesel prices live, Sensex today
• Screener.in — TCS FY26 Results announcement April 9, 2026
• BusinessToday — TCS Q4 dividend Rs 31 per share, April 9, 2026
• Trading Economics — BSE Sensex historical data April 2026