The Real Census Story: How India’s Population Has Changed Since 2011

In India, population is never just a statistic. It is a headline, a political argument, a TRP gaining tool for the media and, usually, a mode of deep public anxiety.

In India, population has always been discussed amongst the public in terms of religion and community. Be it Hindu, Muslim, Sikh, Christian, or any other.

Census is not only about which community is growing or declining. The Real Census Story goes much deeper — it is about fertility rates, women’s education, access to healthcare, migration, urbanisation, employment, age structure, life expectancy and the changing aspirations of families across rural and urban India. Behind every percentage point is a much larger social and economic shift.

Bharat had conducted the last national Census in 2011. Since then, the country has relied on the same estimates, projections and surveys to understand population trends. The next full Census, delayed for several years due to COVID and several political interferences, has now been officially announced as Census 2027.

India’s 2011 Census was carried out in two stages: house listing and population enumeration. The first stage began on 1 April 2010, during which officials collected details about houses, buildings, and households across the country. This phase included data collection for the National Population Register (NPR), which was later intended to help create a unique 12-digit identification number for Indian residents through the Unique Identification Authority of India.

The second stage, population enumeration, took place from 9 February to 28 February 2011. India has been conducting census exercises since 1872, but the 2011 Census was significant because it was the first time when people were giving biometric information as part of the process.

According to the provisional figures released on 31 March 2011, India’s population reached 1.21 billion (121 Crore), recording a decadal growth rate of 17.70%. The adult literacy rate also improved, rising to 74.04%, with a growth of 9.21% over the previous decade. The theme of the census was “Our Census, Our Future,” reflecting its importance in planning the country’s development.

The census covered 28 states and 8 union territories, reaching 640 districts, 5,924 sub-districts, 7,935 towns, and more than 600,000 villages. Around 2.7 million officials went door to door across cities, towns, and villages to collect information on people’s gender, religion, education, occupation, and other key details.

The entire exercise cost nearly ₹2,200 crore, which was relatively economical for a country of India’s size. In fact, the cost came to less than US$0.50 per person, much lower than the global average of around US$4.60 per person.

India’s population at a glance

Year	Population	Nature of data	Source
2011	121.09 crore	Census count	Census 2011 / PIB
2015	Aprx 132.29 crore	Mid-year estimate	World Bank WDI
2026	142.59 crore	Official projection	National Commission on Population/MoSPI

Religion-wise population: what Census 2011 says

According to the Registrar General and Census Commissioner of India, the total population in 2011 was 121.09 crore.

Religious Composition of India: 2011 Official Census

Total Population: 121.09 crore

Religion	Population (Crore)	Percentage Share	Change since 2001
Hindu	96.63	79.80%	- 0.7 percentage points
Muslim	17.22	14.23%	+ 0.8 percentage points
Christian	2.78	2.30%	No significant change
Sikh	2.08	1.72%	- 0.2 percentage points
Buddhist	0.84	0.70%	- 0.1 percentage points
Jain	0.45	0.37%	No significant change
Other Religions & Persuasions	0.79	0.66%	—
Religion Not Stated	0.29	0.24%	—

Source: Office of the Registrar General and Census Commissioner, India — Census 2011 Religious Data. PIB Press Release, August 25, 2015. censusindia.gov.in

2015 Estimated Population (UN Projection): approximately 131 crore (1.31 billion)

By this point, India was adding roughly 1.5 crore people per year. The country was deep in a demographic transition — fertility rates were declining, child mortality was dropping, and people were living longer. The young population was enormous: India's median age was around 27 years, making it one of the youngest large countries in the world.

Source: United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division — population.un.org; World Population Prospects 2024 Revision

2020: On the Edge of a Milestone

2020 Estimated Population (UN Projection): approximately 138 crore (1.38 billion)

Around 2020, something historic was underway: India was approaching the point where it would overtake China to become the world's most populous country. The United Nations confirmed this milestone in 2023. India had crossed China not through explosive growth, but because India's population was still growing while China's had levelled off — a result of decades of China's one-child policy.

India's Total Fertility Rate (TFR) — the average number of children a woman bears in her lifetime — had reached 2.0 by the 2019-21 National Family Health Survey (NFHS-5), just below the replacement level of 2.1.

Source: NFHS-5 (2019-21), International Institute for Population Sciences (IIPS) and Ministry of Health and Family Welfare — mohfw.gov.in; UN World Population Prospects 2024

The bigger story: India is still growing, but more slowly

India’s demographic story is no longer just about more people. It is about a changing population pyramid. MoSPI notes that the proportion of children under 15 is expected to decline between 2011 and 2036 because of falling fertility, while the population aged 60 and above is expected to increase.

This matters deeply as the young population can be a national advantage only if it is educated, skilled, healthy and employable. Otherwise, demographic dividend can turn into demographic pressure. India’s working-age population is projected to rise until 2036, with the 15–59 age group increasing from 60.7% in 2011 to 64.9% in 2036.

The gender dimension

India’s population is also becoming slightly more balanced in terms of sex ratio. The official projection cited by MoSPI shows India’s sex ratio improving from 943 females per 1,000 males in 2011 to 948 in 2026 and 952 in 2036.

INDIA'S POPULATION BY YEAR — A QUICK REFERENCE TABLE

Year	Estimated Population	Annual Growth Rate	Key Milestone
2001	102.86 crore	~1.97%	Census Year
2011	121.09 crore	~1.64%	Last Official Census
2015	~131 crore	~1.40%	UN Projection
2020	~138 crore	~1.0%	UN Projection
2025	~146 crore	~0.89%	UN Projection
2026	~147.66 crore	~0.86%	UN Projection
2027	~148.88 crore	~0.83%	Next Census Year
2050	~166 crore (projected)	~0.4%	UN Long-term Projection
2062	~170 crore (peak, projected)	~0%	Population Peak
2100	~151 crore (projected)	Negative	Population Decline

Sources: Census of India 2001 and 2011 (censusindia.gov.in); UN World Population Prospects 2024 (population.un.org); StatisticsTimes.com

The Long View: 1950 to 2015

In May 2024, the Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister (EAC-PM) — an independent body chaired by economists and experts — released a landmark working paper titled "Share of Religious Minorities: A Cross-Country Analysis (1950-2015)". It deserves careful reading, not selective quotation.

The key findings for India:

The share of the Hindu population declined by 7.82 percentage points — from 84.68% in 1950 to 78.06% in 2015.
The share of the Muslim population increased by 43.15% (in relative terms) — from 9.84% in 1950 to 14.09% in 2015.
The share of Christian population rose from 2.24% to 2.36% — a 5.38% increase.
The share of Sikh population rose from 1.24% to 1.85% — a 6.58% rise.
The Parsi (Zoroastrian) community saw a stark 85% decline in population share.

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SOURCES & REFERENCES

All data in this article is drawn from the following official and peer-reviewed sources: